Theme 2: Natural and Built Environment
Life at a Time of Climate Change: The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Development, Livelihoods and Sustainability
Overview
This section opens with a technical explanation of the meaning, drivers and impacts of climate change – and its significance for the ASEAN region. In particular it takes a close look at the drivers of sea-level rise, the current best estimates of rates of sea-level rise out to the end of this century, and the implications by country for some of the ASEAN member nations.
Key Findings
A net-zero global emissions policy is required
Climate change is unfolding rapidly, with background temperature rise already more than 1oC. A net-zero global emissions policy is required, requiring CDR strategy for removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Responses from within ASEAN to this acute situation must be carefully considered, but not delayed.
All aspects of life and stability are affected by climate changes
Sea level rise poses a particular threat across the ASEAN region. Even if global CO2 emissions targets are enhanced and CDR successfully implemented, sea level rise to the end of the 21st century is locked in. Loss of land to permanent or annual flooding threatens food supply, sustainability of coastal cities and communities, demanding specifically planned adaptation measures once the detailed predictions are known.
Detailed data, models and scenarios are needed in order to understand the grass-roots picture across ASEAN.
City by city, and coastline by coastline, local detail will vary. Detailed forward looking studies are required; Foresight studies are recommended. In the first instance, Foresight studies would focus on sea-level rise, energy transition pathways and options, and on CDR enhancement. In each case studies would look in detail across the ASEAN region.
Policy Implications
ASEAN needs to create access to the best evidence, information, scenarios and modelling about climate change, its consequences, and in particular the need for all AMS to mitigate future climate change. Generated from within the ASEAN organisation using a Foresight study approach, the information must become available to all those involved in policy processes across the ASEAN region. Evidence and information should be sufficiently detailed to provide meaningful and differentiated knowledge to each AMS. Evidence and information must be communicated clearly and actively to all Ministries, especially energy, agriculture and forestry, for example.
Sea level rise is advancing rapidly across the ASEAN region. A specific study, within any Foresight programme, of the coastlines and low-lying areas should be carried out in order to understand the most up-to-date implications of sea-level rise to the end of the century.
The energy transition from reliance on coal towards increased reliance on renewable energy is an important route to mitigation of climate change across the ASEAN region. A specific study of renewable energy options across the region is needed in order for an informed energy transition to be accelerated without delay.
Clear prioritisation of climate issues (both mitigation and adaptation) in economic decisions, and in planning and development across the region is critical. Pursuing these objectives together can add value and benefits for the AMS. Global green funding is a credible source of support for a coordinated approach, and CDR strategy offers pathways to such funding across ASEAN.
